Although many have development synergies, not all income groups have so far benefited from them. But the geographical and economic scales at which the required rates of change in the energy, land, urban, infrastructure and industrial systems would need to take place are larger and have no documented historic precedent (limited evidence, medium agreement). As such, sustainable development has the potential to significantly reduce systemic vulnerability, enhance adaptive capacity, and promote livelihood security for poor and disadvantaged populations (high confidence). Ill-designed responses, however, could pose challenges especially â but not exclusively â for countries and regions contending with poverty and those requiring significant transformation of their energy systems. Most land regions are experiencing greater warming than the global average, while most ocean regions are warming at a slower rate. While this could limit the social and environmental feasibility of land-based mitigation options, careful design and implementation could enhance their acceptability and support sustainable development objectives (medium evidence, medium agreement). Active commuting, such as walking or cycling, has been recommended as a feasible way of incorporating greater levels of physical activity into daily life, A meta-analysis of 173 146 participants reported that active commuting was associated with a lower risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes, The work was limited by use of a heterogeneous range of cardiometabolic endpoints (including incident hypertension, diabetes, stroke, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular disease (CVD)), and inconsistent adjustment for confounders between studies as well as no differentiation between commuting by walking and cycling, Commuting by cycling was associated with a lower risk of all cause mortality and adverse CVD and cancer outcomes, and walking commuting was associated with lower risk of CVD incidence and mortality, in a dose dependent manner and independent of a range of confounding factors, Mixed mode commuting including a cycle component was associated with a lower risk of all cause mortality and cancer outcomes, Policies designed to affect a population level modal shift to more active modes of commuting, particularly by cycle (eg, cycle lanes, city bike hire, subsidised cycle purchase schemes, and increasing provision for cycles on public transport) may present major opportunities for the improvement of public health. {1.1, Cross-Chapter Box 1}. Individual mitigation options are associated with both positive and negative interactions with the SDGs (very high confidence). Evdod - Aqui pode encontrar milhares de filmes, conteúdo muito bem organizado, venha conhecer o Evdod.com. JPP, NS, and JMRG contributed equally to this work and are joint senior authors. Design Prospective population based study. The ±400 GtCO2 geophysical uncertainty range surrounding a carbon budget translates into a variation of this timing of carbon neutrality of roughly ±15â20 years. Hinweise und Registrierung . Appropriate design and implementation requires considering local peopleâs needs, biodiversity and other sustainable development dimensions (very high confidence). Most least-cost mitigation pathways to limit peak or end-of-century warming to 1.5°C make use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), predominantly employing significant levels of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and/or afforestation and reforestation (AR) in their portfolio of mitigation measures (high confidence). However, lack of global cooperation, lack of governance of the required energy and land transformation, and increases in resource-intensive consumption are key impediments to achieving 1.5°C pathways. {4.3, 4.4}, Governance consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C and the political economy of adaptation and mitigation can enable and accelerate systems transitions,behavioural change,innovation and technology deployment (medium evidence, medium agreement). The regions with the largest increases in heavy precipitation events for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming include: several high-latitude regions (e.g. Copyright © 2021 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd 京ICP备15042040号-3, Association between active commuting and incident cardiovascular disease, cancer, and mortality: prospective cohort study, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/42330/1/WHO_TRS_894.pdf, Cornwall Partnership NHS Foundation Trust: Opportunities in Psychiatry, Bedfordshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust: Consultant in ENT Surgery with a subspecialty interest in Otology, Isle of Man Government: Consultant in Anaesthesia & Intensive Care, Isle of Man Government: Consultant in Old Age Psychiatry, West London NHS Trust: Consultant Psychiatrists, Women’s, children’s & adolescents’ health. Global warming is defined in this report as an increase in combined surface air and sea surface temperatures averaged over the globe and over a 30-year period. Model simulations suggest that at least one sea-ice-free Arctic summer is expected every 10 years for global warming of 2°C, with the frequency decreasing to one sea-ice-free Arctic summer every 100 years under 1.5°C (medium confidence). {3.5.2, 3.5.3} The largest reductions in economic growth at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of warming are projected for low- and middle-income countries and regions (the African continent, Southeast Asia, India, Brazil and Mexico) (low to medium confidence). There is high confidence that sea level rise will continue beyond 2100. Date and cause of hospital admissions were identified using record linkage to health episode statistics records for participants from England and Wales and Scottish morbidity records (SMR01) for participants from Scotland. {2.2.2, 2.6.1}, Cumulative CO2 emissions are kept within a budget by reducing global annual CO2 emissions to net zero. Global warming of 1.5°C is associated with global average surface temperatures fluctuating naturally on either side of 1.5°C, together with warming substantially greater than 1.5°C in many regions and seasons (high confidence), all of which must be considered in the assessment of impacts. All participants gave written informed consent before enrolment in the study, which was conducted in accord with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki. By 2050, renewables (including bioenergy, hydro, wind, and solar, with direct-equivalence method) supply a share of 52â67% (interquartile range) of primary energy in 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot; while the share from coal decreases to 1â7% (interquartile range), with a large fraction of this coal use combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Projected GMSLR for 1.5°C of global warming has an indicative range of 0.26 â 0.77m, relative to 1986â2005, (medium confidence). {4.3.2, 4.5.3}, Changing agricultural practices can be an effective climate adaptation strategy. We thank the participants of the UK Biobank. Models for all cause mortality excluded participants with a history of CVD or cancer. {3.4.5, 3.4.8}, Poverty and disadvantage have increased with recent warming (about 1°C) and are expected to increase for many populations as average global temperatures increase from 1°C to 1.5°C and higher (medium confidence). Global warming of 1.5°C would also lead to an expansion of the global land area with significant increases in runoff (medium confidence) and an increase in flood hazard in some regions (medium confidence) compared to present-day conditions. In the present cohort, a lower risk for CVD incidence was only evident among the walking commuters who covered more than six miles a week (equivalent to two hours of weekly commuting by walking at a typical pace of three miles an hour). The strongest warming of hot extremes is projected to occur in central and eastern North America, central and southern Europe, the Mediterranean region (including southern Europe, northern Africa and the Near East), western and central Asia, and southern Africa (medium confidence). {5.4.1} However, appropriate choices across the mitigation portfolio can help to maximize positive side effects while minimizing negative side effects (high confidence). This implies the mobilization of institutional investors and mainstreaming of climate finance within financial and banking system regulation. Compared with non-active commuters, walking commuters had higher physical activity but not cardiorespiratory fitness. Mixed mode commuting was associated with some benefits but only if the active component comprised cycling. {4.3, 4.4, Cross-Chapter Box 9 in this Chapter}, Although multiple communities around the world are demonstrating the possibility of implementation consistent with 1.5°C pathways {Boxes 4.1-4.10}, very few countries, regions, cities, communities or businesses can currently make such a claim (high confidence). This chapter builds on findings of AR5 and assesses new scientific evidence of changes in the climate system and the associated impacts on natural and human systems, with a specific focus on the magnitude and pattern of risks linked for global warming of 1.5°C above temperatures in the pre-industrial period. Setting UK Biobank. Natural gas changes by â13% to â62% (interquartile range), but some pathways show a marked increase albeit with widespread deployment of CCS. {3.4.5.3, 3.4.5.4, 3.4.5.7, 5.4.5.4, Box However, risks would be larger at 2°C of warming and an even greater effort would be needed for adaptation to a temperature increase of that magnitude (high confidence). Improving productivity of existing agricultural systems generally reduces the emissions intensity of food production and offers strong synergies with rural development, poverty reduction and food security objectives, but options to reduce absolute emissions are limited unless paired with demand-side measures. In such pathways, it is not possible to limit warming to 1.5°C for the vast majority of the integrated assessment models (medium evidence, high agreement). {3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.3.4, Box 3.4}, Trends in intensity and frequency of some climate and weather extremes have been detected over time spans during which about 0.5°C of global warming occurred (medium confidence). Reductions of several warming SLCFs are constrained by economic and social feasibility (low evidence, high agreement). The interactions of climate change and climate responses with sustainable development including sustainable development impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C, the synergies and tradeoffs of mitigation and adaptation with the Sustainable Development Goals/SDGs, and the possibilities for sustainable and equitable low carbon, climate-resilient development pathways. In framing the objective of holding the increase in the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement associates the principle of equity with the broader goals of poverty eradication and sustainable development, recognising that effective responses to climate change require a global collective effort that may be guided by the 2015 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.